It is the transfer saga that refuses to die, but Guenther Steiner has just made it considerably more awkward for Max Verstappen. The former Haas boss says Mercedes no longer needs the four-time world champion, because they have already found his replacement in Kimi Antonelli. Ouch.
The Verdict From Steiner
Speaking on the Up To Speed podcast, Steiner was blunt about Verstappen’s dwindling options in the driver market.
“At Mercedes, I think they’ve now found the next Max Verstappen. So, maybe they don’t need the real Max Verstappen at the moment.” – Guenther Steiner
It is hard to argue with the logic. Antonelli leads the 2026 drivers’ championship with 219 points. Verstappen sits sixth with 109, a 110-point deficit to his Mercedes rival. He has not won a single race this season. When a 19-year-old rookie is outscoring you by that margin, the narrative around your market value shifts rather quickly.
So Where Does Verstappen Actually Go?
This is where Steiner’s analysis gets genuinely interesting, because the options are thin. Ferrari’s seats are occupied. Mercedes, per Steiner, have their man. That leaves McLaren, and even there, Steiner is sceptical.
“McLaren until a few races ago, it’s like, are they really better than Red Bull?” he said, pointing out that Red Bull holds one significant trump card: a works engine. McLaren run a customer Mercedes unit. A factory power unit matters, and Steiner thinks that advantage keeps Red Bull relevant as one of the four top teams, even if they are not where they were in 2022 and 2023.
Verstappen’s contract at Red Bull runs until the end of 2028, but speculation about an early exit has been building steadily throughout 2026. The problem is that wanting to leave and having somewhere better to go are two very different things.
Antonelli Has Changed Everything
When Hamilton departed for Ferrari ahead of 2026, Verstappen was the obvious name touted for the vacant Mercedes seat. Mercedes chose the teenager from Bologna instead, and right now that looks like one of the shrewdest calls in recent F1 history. Antonelli’s development under the Silver Arrows setup has been remarkable, and Toto Wolff has already made clear he has no desire to change his driver line-up.
Steiner’s conclusion is simple: if Verstappen goes anywhere, he wants it to be the best team available. Right now, that is Mercedes. And Mercedes, quite simply, does not need him.
The Uncomfortable Truth
Verstappen’s situation is a useful reminder that reputations do not guarantee seats. The market does not wait. Antonelli has not just filled Hamilton’s boots; he has arguably made the whole question of signing Verstappen irrelevant for at least the next cycle. If Red Bull cannot close the gap in the second half of 2026, Verstappen may find that his only realistic move is the one he is already in. This weekend’s Dutch GP will tell us plenty about whether that gap is closing at all.
