Lando Norris has just told McLaren he’s not going anywhere until 2030, and fair enough, why would he leave a team that’s just handed him a title and two upgrade-fuelled wins on the bounce? But zoom out from Woking’s cosy family day and the picture across the paddock is far messier. More than half the grid is out of contract at the end of this year, which means the next few months are going to be one long game of chicken between drivers, teams and their lawyers.
Norris Cashes In While He Can
The timing of Norris’s new deal is not an accident. He signs it fresh off wins in Hungary and the Netherlands, as world champion, with McLaren’s car finally doing what it’s supposed to. You do not need a psychology degree to work out why McLaren wanted this wrapped up now rather than waiting for the market, or Norris’s alternatives, to heat up.
As Autosport reports, the extension takes Norris from a deal that ran to 2027 all the way to at least 2030, with options to go further still. He announced it himself to staff at McLaren’s open day, which is the kind of stage-managed sincerity F1 does so well, but the substance is real: this is now a driver contracted for longer than his own current championship rivals bar Leclerc and Verstappen. McLaren also threw in a nostalgia gift, his title-winning MCL39, because nothing says “we value you” like handing back the car you already won in.
Oscar Piastri, for context, is locked in until 2028 after his own extension last year. That gives McLaren the rare luxury among the big teams of not having to sweat their driver line-up while everyone else scrambles.
Mercedes and Ferrari Are Sitting on Landmines
This is where it gets interesting, and where the PR language starts doing some heavy lifting. Kimi Antonelli, currently leading the championship on 242 points, is contracted only to the end of this season. George Russell’s deal is said to run into 2027, but reportedly in a form loose enough that both sides could walk if they fancied it. For a team sitting top of the constructors’ standings on 425 points, that is an oddly precarious position to be advertising, even quietly.
Ferrari’s situation is scarcely tidier. Charles Leclerc’s new deal, announced with typical Ferrari vagueness before Monaco as merely “several more seasons”, is understood to actually run to 2030 or beyond, matching Norris and Verstappen as the longest deals on the grid. Lewis Hamilton, meanwhile, is tied down only to 2027 by his own admission at the Canadian GP, which is a fairly modest commitment for a seven-time champion sitting third in the championship on 183 points. Leclerc himself has already warned that Mercedes shouldn’t be written off despite their recent wobble, which given Mercedes’ current contract uncertainty feels like the understatement of the season.
Red Bull’s Big Bet, and the One Nobody’s Talking About
Max Verstappen’s move to 2030 was the story of the summer, a deal Red Bull announced with theatrical timing before the Dutch Grand Prix after years of will-he-won’t-he speculation. Verstappen has since insisted he was never stressed about the process, which is easy to say once you’ve signed the paperwork and secured yourself financially into the next decade regardless of how competitive the car actually is.
Less discussed is Isack Hadjar, contracted only for this year despite outscoring plenty of the grid and holding his own against Verstappen in his rookie season at the senior team. Given Hadjar sits eighth in the standings on 68 points ahead of far more experienced names, you’d think Red Bull would want that one sorted rather than left to dangle. Liam Lawson, who rebuilt his career at Racing Bulls after being unceremoniously dumped there in 2025, is in the same boat: 2026 only, no security beyond that, despite 49 points and a clear recovery arc.
The Rest of the Grid Is a Waiting Room
Williams quietly tidied up its future before the Dutch GP, confirming both Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz beyond this season, Albon through what amounts to an exit clause rather than a fresh deal, Sainz on a multi-year extension with no fixed end date. Considering Sainz has been openly comparing his old employer unfavourably to Aston Martin, Williams will be relieved to have that one locked down before he had time for second thoughts.
Elsewhere, it’s a lot of expiring paper. Alonso and Stroll are tied to Aston Martin only until the end of this year, as is the entire Haas pairing of Bearman and Ocon, despite team boss Ayao Komatsu having to publicly deny any rift between himself and Ocon. Racing Bulls has both Lawson and rookie Arvid Lindblad on 2026-only terms. Audi’s Hulkenberg and Bortoleto are on the vaguer “multi-year” wording that tells you precisely nothing, though Hulkenberg’s arrangement is believed to stretch towards 2027. Alpine has been tidier, with Pierre Gasly through to 2028 and Franco Colapinto retained for 2027 after Flavio Briatore reportedly hedged his bets in case a seat opened up at Mercedes. And Cadillac, the newcomer, has both Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas on multi-year paper through 2027, with Perez already shutting down any exit talk and even angling for a longer project.
A Market Built on Leverage, Not Loyalty
Strip away the “special human being” quotes and the gifted show cars, and what you’re left with is simple leverage. Norris signed early because his stock will never be higher. Mercedes and Ferrari are leaving their biggest assets on short paper because uncertainty, however uncomfortable it looks from the outside, keeps options open. And further down the grid, plenty of drivers who are quietly outperforming their contracts, Hadjar chief among them, are being left to sweat it out for reasons that have nothing to do with performance and everything to do with squad politics.
None of this is new to Formula 1, but with over half the grid off contract this year, the next few months of paddock rumour are going to make the usual silly season look positively sleepy. Enjoy the calm while it lasts.
